How can it continue from here? In the short to medium term, the already mentioned price levels of 3,500 US dollars, 3,000 US dollars and 2,500 US dollars can be observed as new supports. For the long-term investor, however, the question is how things could continue.
The vernacular says so nicely that history does not repeat itself, but rhymes. So let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s share price history. The last bear market was from 2014 to 2016. Can we learn anything from that?
A look at the news spy chart of the Bitcoin price between 2011 and 2018 shows an interesting behaviour
The rhyme story can be seen in the news spy price fall and that of late 2014: In both cases the moving average of the last 140 weeks has been broken. At the same time, another important support broke, which had been in place for three years in both cases: Is The News Spy a Scam? Beware, Read our Review First
For the Bitcoin price, the end of the bear market had not come, but it moved at least above the moving average of the last 200 weeks. This proved to be a sufficiently strong support, so that the Bitcoin price moved sideways again afterwards.
So we should keep a close eye on the MA200 in the weekly chart. Looking at the weekly chart above teaches us something: Besides the MA20 in the weekly chart, which is mentioned more often, the MA140 should be considered as fundamental resistance in current price levels. A sustained rise above the MA140 at the end of 2015 was the harbinger of the coming bull market. So let’s look at this sign!
What should we do? Survival in the bear market
Actually, the same lesson applies in the bear market as in so many other life situations: Keep calm. An overheated sale only leads to the fact that you continue to pull your hair out. More than a year ago I wrote about the mindset you should have on the market. This is still true, as I described in other articles accompanying the Bear Market 2018.
From an investment point of view, there are basically two options to deal with the current bear market: You can be a trader or a long-term investor. The current phase is certainly exhausting for the long-term investor. He sees his portfolio shrink and lose more and more value. I can recommend him to do dollar cost averaging, or use methods like Mayer multiple and deal with portfolio theory. In Cryptokomass we actively manage three different model portfolios, of which we also follow the Conservative portfolio in a weekly column.
It should be noted, however, that this investment approach does not currently promise any short-term profit. Trading can be attractive for those who are looking for it. The trader takes advantage of market movements and is currently happy about the volatility that has returned to the market. The falling prices have brought good money to many a short. Of course it is a challenge for the trader to stay on the ball. Half-hearted trading sooner or later leads to empty pockets. At this point I can only recommend our weekly column about the top 3 crypto currencies, in which our analyst Thomas Hartmann from the trading school Crypto Currencies reveals a look at his cards to anyone interested in trading. Addendum: He also made a chart analysis of the recent fall in the share price:
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple – Price analysis KW47 Update – Is there a bottom?
In addition I would like to recommend our Discord, where you can exchange ideas with passionate traders in its #trading channel. Especially in frustrating times, when the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are falling, the exchange with like-minded people helps not to lose your good mood despite winter and bear market.